Actuarial

ISCO-08 2120

Actuary, Reserving actuary, Solvency II actuary, Actuarial analyst, ALM actuary, Head of actuarial function

AI exposure56%

Headcount need, in FTE

Exposure range

Your current headcount

FTE

Need in 203090 FTE-10 FTE (-10%)

Need in 203581 FTE-19 FTE (-19%)

How AI is used on these tasks today

Automation 35%Augmentation 65%

In AI conversations about this job's tasks: the AI does the task itself (automation) or helps the person do it (augmentation).Anthropic Economic Index, April and May 2026. Occupations: Actuaries. AEI

1. Exposure 56%Average automation potential of the job's tasks. Range for this family: 47 to 65%.ILO occupations used: Mathematicians, Actuaries and Statisticians (56%). ILO data

2. Strategic ceiling 100%Your call: how much of this potential do you want to capture? Nobody can set it for you.

3. Adoption speed midpoint 2030

Inherits your company stance, adjustable for this family.

4. Conversion to headcount sensitive 35%Default 35%: Regulatory work and model scrutiny keep growing; time saved on production goes into more scenarios, sensitivities and deeper analysis.

Target AI skills

level 1 to 4

Foundation

Use AI assistants every day

Frame and phrase a request

Check and challenge AI outputs

Protect data and respect the rules

Applied

Rethink one's process with AI

Analyse data with AI

Produce content with AI

Delegate to and supervise AI agents

Expert

Build and integrate AI solutions

Evaluate and make AI solutions reliable

AI governance and risk management

Job skills

Growing in value

Validating and auditing models, including AI
Explaining results to boards and supervisors
Scenario design for emerging risks
Expert judgement on assumptions

Losing value

Writing and maintaining calculation code by hand
Preparing and reconciling closing data
Drafting standard regulatory report sections
Producing routine sensitivity tables

How the job will change

At each closing, actuaries spend a large share of their time preparing data, running reserving triangles, reconciling results and drafting the narrative of regulatory reports. Code generation tools and assistants already shorten these steps: scripts written in minutes, first drafts of the actuarial function report, automatic explanations of movements between two closings.

The time saved does not disappear: it goes into more scenarios, emerging risks such as climate, and model validation, which now covers AI models used in pricing and claims. A good actuary tomorrow will need sound judgement on assumptions, the ability to audit a model they did not build and clear explanations for a board or a supervisor.

2026-2027: Code generation and assistants speed up closing work and report drafting.
2028-2030: Reserving and reporting chains largely automated, more time for scenarios and validation.
2031+: Actuaries act as model validators and risk advisers to management.

Watch out

Qualified actuaries are scarce and the market is tight. The bigger risk is a skills gap: few actuaries today can validate machine learning models, which supervisors increasingly expect to see challenged. See the seniority outlook below.

What if you hired fewer juniors?

Your 2036 seniors are the juniors you hire today.

Seniors available in 2036-5%2 FTE short

Gap above 5% from2036

Your seniority mix today

Juniors (0 to 3 yrs in the profession)25%Seniors (10+ yrs)30%

Mid-level (3 to 10 yrs in the profession, the remainder)45%

Cut in junior hiring -40%

For

Advanced settings

Juniors promoted each year25%Juniors leaving each year12%Senior gap filled by external hiring0%If every company makes the same bet, senior profiles will be scarce and expensive.

Seniority mix, % of today's headcount

Juniors25%Mid-level42%Seniors28%

2026 2036

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How the numbers are built

Every headcount figure combines four assumptions. Three come pre-filled from public research and job family defaults. The strategic ceiling is yours to set.

Public researchExposureAverage automation potential of the job's tasks, from the ILO's 2025 task-level scores.

Your decisionStrategic ceilingHow much of that potential you choose to capture. Your decision, not ours.

Your companyAdoption speedHow fast your company moves, set once for the whole company.

Job family defaultConversion to headcountHow much of the productivity gain becomes fewer people rather than more output.

Headcount effect

Seniority outlook

A flow model with three levels of experience in the profession. Promotion and exit rates are set so that today's mix stays stable when hiring does not change: any gap you see comes from the junior hiring cut alone.