Underwriting

ISCO-08 3321, 2413

Underwriter, Commercial lines underwriter, Senior underwriter, Specialty lines underwriter, Underwriting assistant, Underwriting manager

AI exposure57%

Headcount need, in FTE

Exposure range

Your current headcount

FTE

Need in 203084 FTE-16 FTE (-16%)

Need in 203569 FTE-31 FTE (-31%)

How AI is used on these tasks todayNot enough observed usage on this job's tasks to publish a figure.Anthropic Economic Index, April and May 2026. Occupations: Insurance Underwriters. AEI

1. Exposure 57%Average automation potential of the job's tasks. Range for this family: 41 to 68%.ILO occupations used: Insurance Representatives (53%), Financial Analysts (62%). ILO data

2. Strategic ceiling 100%Your call: how much of this potential do you want to capture? Nobody can set it for you.

3. Adoption speed midpoint 2030

Inherits your company stance, adjustable for this family.

4. Conversion to headcount sensitive 55%Default 55%: Standard risks are automated, but brokers expect faster answers on complex risks, so part of the gain is reinvested in responsiveness.

Target AI skills

level 1 to 4

Foundation

Use AI assistants every day

Frame and phrase a request

Check and challenge AI outputs

Protect data and respect the rules

Applied

Rethink one's process with AI

Analyse data with AI

Produce content with AI

Delegate to and supervise AI agents

Expert

AI governance and risk management

Job skills

Growing in value

Technical judgement on atypical risks
Broker relationship and negotiation of terms
Steering the portfolio against risk appetite
Critical review of model risk scores

Losing value

Extracting data from broker submissions
Quoting standard risks from rating grids
Drafting routine quotes and endorsements
Compiling loss histories from several sources

How the job will change

An underwriter receives submissions from brokers in every format: emails, questionnaires, schedules of locations, loss histories. AI now extracts and structures this data, checks it against underwriting guidelines and pre-prices standard risks. For small businesses and simple property risks, a large share of quotes can go out without an underwriter reviewing each one.

The underwriter's time shifts to atypical and large risks, to discussions with brokers and to steering the portfolio against the company's appetite. A good underwriter tomorrow reads a risk beyond what the data shows, knows when to override a model score and can defend a price or an exclusion in front of a demanding broker.

2026-2027: Automated extraction of broker submissions, AI-assisted pre-pricing of standard risks.
2028-2030: Small commercial risks largely underwritten automatically, underwriters refocus on complex business.
2031+: Fewer, more senior underwriters steering portfolios and atypical risks.

Watch out

Underwriting judgement takes years to build, and many senior underwriters will retire over the coming decade. If junior posts disappear along with standard risks, succession on complex lines will be thin. See the seniority outlook below.

What if you hired fewer juniors?

Your 2036 seniors are the juniors you hire today.

Seniors available in 2036-5%2 FTE short

Gap above 5% from2036

Your seniority mix today

Juniors (0 to 3 yrs in the profession)25%Seniors (10+ yrs)30%

Mid-level (3 to 10 yrs in the profession, the remainder)45%

Cut in junior hiring -40%

For

Advanced settings

Juniors promoted each year25%Juniors leaving each year12%Senior gap filled by external hiring0%If every company makes the same bet, senior profiles will be scarce and expensive.

Seniority mix, % of today's headcount

Juniors25%Mid-level42%Seniors28%

2026 2036

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How the numbers are built

Every headcount figure combines four assumptions. Three come pre-filled from public research and job family defaults. The strategic ceiling is yours to set.

Public researchExposureAverage automation potential of the job's tasks, from the ILO's 2025 task-level scores.

Your decisionStrategic ceilingHow much of that potential you choose to capture. Your decision, not ours.

Your companyAdoption speedHow fast your company moves, set once for the whole company.

Job family defaultConversion to headcountHow much of the productivity gain becomes fewer people rather than more output.

Headcount effect

Seniority outlook

A flow model with three levels of experience in the profession. Promotion and exit rates are set so that today's mix stays stable when hiring does not change: any gap you see comes from the junior hiring cut alone.