Software development

ISCO-08 2512, 2514

Software engineer, Full-stack developer, Back-end developer, Front-end developer, Mobile developer, Tech lead

AI exposure55%

Headcount need, in FTE

Exposure range

Your current headcount

FTE

Need in 203090 FTE-10 FTE (-10%)

Need in 203581 FTE-19 FTE (-19%)

How AI is used on these tasks today

Automation 68%Augmentation 32%

In AI conversations about this job's tasks: the AI does the task itself (automation) or helps the person do it (augmentation).Anthropic Economic Index, April and May 2026. Occupations: Software Developers, Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers. AEI

1. Exposure 55%Average automation potential of the job's tasks. Range for this family: 46 to 65%.ILO occupations used: Software Developers (53%), Applications Programmers (57%). ILO data

2. Strategic ceiling 100%Your call: how much of this potential do you want to capture? Nobody can set it for you.

3. Adoption speed midpoint 2030

Inherits your company stance, adjustable for this family.

4. Conversion to headcount sensitive 35%Default 35%: Software backlogs are rarely exhausted: faster coding mostly turns into more features, shorter delays and paying down technical debt.

Target AI skills

level 1 to 4

Foundation

Use AI assistants every day

Frame and phrase a request

Check and challenge AI outputs

Protect data and respect the rules

Applied

Rethink one's process with AI

Analyse data with AI

Produce content with AI

Delegate to and supervise AI agents

Expert

Build and integrate AI solutions

Evaluate and make AI solutions reliable

AI governance and risk management

Job skills

Growing in value

Software architecture and system design
Reviewing AI-generated code
Turning business needs into precise specifications
Test strategy and application security
Supervising coding agents

Losing value

Writing boilerplate and CRUD code
Writing unit tests by hand
Code documentation and comments
Syntax mastery of a single language
Simple framework migrations

How the job will change

Code generation tools already write a large share of routine code: data access layers, API connectors, unit tests, documentation, framework upgrades. Coding agents now take a ticket, change several files and open a pull request. Developers type less and read more, mostly code they did not write, which demands more attention than it seems.

The job moves towards design and accountability: framing the problem, choosing the architecture, deciding what an agent may touch and checking what it delivers. A good developer tomorrow will be judged on the quality of their specifications, their reviews and their grasp of the business domain, much less on raw coding speed. Security and maintainability remain human responsibilities.

2026-2027: Code assistants everywhere; agents handle tests, documentation and simple tickets.
2028-2030: Agents deliver complete features under human review; smaller teams per product.
2031+: Developers mainly specify, design and validate; hand-written code becomes the exception.

Watch out

Junior developers learned by writing simple code, which agents now produce. Without a deliberate apprenticeship path, companies will lack in five years the senior reviewers needed to supervise those agents. See the seniority outlook below.

What if you hired fewer juniors?

Your 2036 seniors are the juniors you hire today.

Seniors available in 2036-10%2 FTE short

Gap above 5% from2031

Your seniority mix today

Juniors (0 to 2 yrs in the profession)35%Seniors (6+ yrs)20%

Mid-level (2 to 6 yrs in the profession, the remainder)45%

Cut in junior hiring -40%

For

Advanced settings

Juniors promoted each year33%Juniors leaving each year15%Senior gap filled by external hiring0%If every company makes the same bet, senior profiles will be scarce and expensive.

Seniority mix, % of today's headcount

Juniors35%Mid-level42%Seniors18%

2026 2036

Free guide

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Run these scenarios on your actual workforce

AI Impact Diagnostic: 6 to 8 weeks, your data in albert, three costed scenarios and the projected seniority mix for each job family.

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How the numbers are built

Every headcount figure combines four assumptions. Three come pre-filled from public research and job family defaults. The strategic ceiling is yours to set.

Public researchExposureAverage automation potential of the job's tasks, from the ILO's 2025 task-level scores.

Your decisionStrategic ceilingHow much of that potential you choose to capture. Your decision, not ours.

Your companyAdoption speedHow fast your company moves, set once for the whole company.

Job family defaultConversion to headcountHow much of the productivity gain becomes fewer people rather than more output.

Headcount effect

Seniority outlook

A flow model with three levels of experience in the profession. Promotion and exit rates are set so that today's mix stays stable when hiring does not change: any gap you see comes from the junior hiring cut alone.