Product and collection development

ISCO-08 2163, 3323

Product developer, Collection manager, Product manager (leather goods), Development engineer, Sourcing and development buyer

AI exposure37%

Headcount need, in FTE

Exposure range

Your current headcount

FTE

Need in 203094 FTE-6 FTE (-6%)

Need in 203587 FTE-13 FTE (-13%)

How AI is used on these tasks today

Automation 37%Augmentation 63%

In AI conversations about this job's tasks: the AI does the task itself (automation) or helps the person do it (augmentation).Anthropic Economic Index, April and May 2026. Occupations: Fashion Designers, Commercial and Industrial Designers, Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products. AEI

1. Exposure 37%Average automation potential of the job's tasks. Range for this family: 26 to 47%.ILO occupations used: Product and Garment Designers (35%), Buyers (39%). ILO data

2. Strategic ceiling 100%Your call: how much of this potential do you want to capture? Nobody can set it for you.

3. Adoption speed midpoint 2030

Inherits your company stance, adjustable for this family.

4. Conversion to headcount sensitive 35%Default 35%: Faster development cycles are used to test more options and shorten time to market, so only part of the time saved reduces headcount.

Target AI skills

level 1 to 4

Foundation

Use AI assistants every day

Frame and phrase a request

Check and challenge AI outputs

Protect data and respect the rules

Applied

Rethink one's process with AI

Analyse data with AI

Produce content with AI

Delegate to and supervise AI agents

Job skills

Growing in value

Arbitration between design, cost and feasibility
Supplier negotiation on new materials
Managing tight development calendars
Sustainability and traceability requirements

Losing value

Building tech packs by hand
Compiling cost sheets from supplier quotes
Chasing samples by email
Updating collection tracking spreadsheets

How the job will change

A large part of a product developer's week goes into tech packs, cost sheets, sample tracking and supplier emails. AI assistants now draft technical files from a sketch, compare quotes, flag delays in the development calendar and prepare supplier correspondence. Product lifecycle management tools will add assistants that pre-fill these steps.

The job concentrates on arbitration: what can be made, at what cost, by whom and by when. A good developer tomorrow will know materials and suppliers in depth, challenge the costings a tool proposes, and hold the line between the creative intent and the industrial and sustainability constraints.

2026-2027: Assistants draft tech packs, supplier emails and cost comparisons.
2028-2030: PLM tools pre-fill development steps; shorter cycles, more options tested.
2031+: Smaller teams focused on arbitration and supplier relationships.

Watch out

Knowledge of materials and suppliers is built over many collections and rarely written down. Cutting assistant roles too fast removes the path through which that expertise is passed on. See the seniority outlook below.

What if you hired fewer juniors?

Your 2036 seniors are the juniors you hire today.

Seniors available in 2036-5%2 FTE short

Gap above 5% from2036

Your seniority mix today

Juniors (0 to 3 yrs in the profession)25%Seniors (10+ yrs)30%

Mid-level (3 to 10 yrs in the profession, the remainder)45%

Cut in junior hiring -40%

For

Advanced settings

Juniors promoted each year25%Juniors leaving each year12%Senior gap filled by external hiring0%If every company makes the same bet, senior profiles will be scarce and expensive.

Seniority mix, % of today's headcount

Juniors25%Mid-level42%Seniors28%

2026 2036

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How the numbers are built

Every headcount figure combines four assumptions. Three come pre-filled from public research and job family defaults. The strategic ceiling is yours to set.

Public researchExposureAverage automation potential of the job's tasks, from the ILO's 2025 task-level scores.

Your decisionStrategic ceilingHow much of that potential you choose to capture. Your decision, not ours.

Your companyAdoption speedHow fast your company moves, set once for the whole company.

Job family defaultConversion to headcountHow much of the productivity gain becomes fewer people rather than more output.

Headcount effect

Seniority outlook

A flow model with three levels of experience in the profession. Promotion and exit rates are set so that today's mix stays stable when hiring does not change: any gap you see comes from the junior hiring cut alone.